Outcome bias

Decisions cannot be assessed only by their outcomes.

They must also be assessed by the choices, chances and circumstances that prevailed when that decision was made.

We must understand the alternatives forgone for the outcome.

Outcomes can be positive or negative, but till we understand the alternatives forgone, we will never know to what degree the outcome is positive or negative.

In fact, some alternatives forgone can flip outcomes from positive to negative and vice versa.

This is why it is important to understand how people arrive at decisions. Outcomes are fleeting, but the decision making process is stubborn.

– Osasu Oviawe

Humility and Prayer

Luke 3:15-16, 21-22
As the people were in expectation, and all men questioned in their hearts concerning John, whether perhaps he were the Christ, John answered them all, “I baptize you with water; but he who is mightier than I is coming, the thong of whose sandals I am not worthy to untie; he will baptize you with the Holy Spirit and with fire.” 
Now when all the people were baptized, and when Jesus also had been baptized and was praying, the heaven was opened, and the Holy Spirit descended upon him in bodily form, as a dove, and a voice came from heaven, “Thou art my beloved Son; with thee I am well pleased.” 

Homily:
He whom John talked about when he said, “I baptize you with water; but he who is mightier than I is coming, the thong of whose sandals I am not worthy to untie; he will baptize you with the Holy Spirit and with fire” , humbled himself and was baptised by John.

Humility and Prayer are signals to God. A signal that we put Him first. A signal that we seek His will. A signal that we submit to Him.

When a child’s father says, “Thou art my beloved Son; with thee I am well pleased,” what do you expect to happen when the child asks?

Humility and Prayer pleases God. Please Him.

Start with what

“Start with why” sounds good, but it rarely works in reality.

Greats start with “what”, build consistency (how), then ask why they are sticking to what.

The reason people take so long to find “why” is because they want to “start with why”, while “what” is right in front of them.

I will explain further using the HPO model someday.

Remind me.

– Osasu Oviawe

Highs and lows

If there is one thing you can be sure of in all humans, it is this – we all have highs and lows.

There are highs and lows in all circumstances, what distinguishes people is their average (mean) performance.

Therein lies the power of regression towards the mean.

A higher mean will have a different range of highs and lows, from a lower mean.

A low for one, can be a high for another.

To improve your highs and lows, improve your average.

– Osasu Oviawe